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【经管大讲堂2021第056期】

时间:2021-12-03作者: 审核: 来源:经济管理学院点击:460

报告题目:Comparing expert elicitation and model-based probabilistic technology cost forecasts for the energy transition

报告所属学科:应用经济学

报告人:孟靖(伦敦大学学院)

报告时间:2021年12月6日 19:00-21:00

报告地点:腾讯会议:355 981 788

报告摘要:

Understanding the future costs of energy technologies is crucial for energy transition. We conduct a systematic comparison of probabilistic technology cost forecasts produced by expert elicitation and model-based methods. We assess their performance by generating probabilistic cost forecasts of energy technologies rooted at various years in the past and then comparing these with observed costs in 2019. Model-based methods outperformed expert elicitations both in terms of capturing 2019 observed values and producing forecast medians that were closer to the observed values. However, all methods underestimated technological progress in almost all technologies. We also produce 2030 cost forecasts and find that elicitations generally yield narrower uncertainty ranges than model-based methods and that model-based forecasts are lower for more modular technologies. Future research should focus on further method development and validation to better reflect structural changes in the market and correlations across technologies. In addition to the production side solution, the demand side solution, such as behavioural change, also contribute to climate change mitigation.

报告人简介:

Dr Jing Meng is an Associate Professor at The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London (UCL). Her research focus is climate change and air pollution policies, including theories and modelling of environmental economics, energy innovation and sustainable consumption and trade policies. Jing receives her PhD degree in Environmental Geography from Peking University. Jing also holds a bachelor’s degree in Building Environment and Energy Engineering from Huazhong University of Science and Technology. Jing is an associate editor of the Journal of Cleaner Production and a guest editor of Journal of Environmental Management. She is also a fellow of Cambridge center for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance at the University of Cambridge.


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