报告题目：When Optimism Breeds Risk: Evidence from LLM-Analyzed Fund Manager Forecasts

报告所属学科：应用经济学

报告人：Jia Liu（朴茨茅斯大学）

报告时间：2026年10月10日 09:30-12:30

报告地点：经管学院A0306室

报告摘要：

本文提出一种基于大语言模型的多实体情感分析框架（LLM-MESA），能够对金融文本中的情感进行细粒度及针对特定实体的测量。本文基于该方法提取了共同基金经理报告中对股市、债市和宏观经济的预期沟通内容，首次提供了机构股市情绪如何预测崩盘风险的证据。研究发现，经理人对股票的乐观预期显著增加了崩盘风险，这表明机构预测中嵌入了非理性情绪。这种效应在技能较低的基金中尤为明显，同时当宏观经济预期悲观且债市观点乐观时表现更为突出。中介分析显示，乐观情绪会加剧机构羊群行为，并吸引受情绪驱动的散户投资者参与股票交易，从而放大崩盘风险。本研究证明了LLM-MESA在金融文本分析中的价值，深化了对机构情绪与崩盘风险关联机制的理解，并为机构投资者究竟是稳定市场还是加剧波动的争论提供了新见解。

报告人简介：

Jia Liu is a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences (FAcSS), Fellow of British Academy of Management (FBAM), and holds the Lifetime Achievement Award of the British Accounting and Finance Association. She is Professor of Accounting and Finance at the University of Portsmouth, UK. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Birmingham, UK, and worked at the University of Leeds and University of Salford, UK. She has published more than 90 papers , including 16 papers in FT50 and ABS-4 rated journals, and published monographs on corporate governance, sustainability and decision-making. Her research has won multiple Best Paper Awards and been published by many media outlets, including The Conversation, The Washington Post and the Nasdaq Stock Exchange.

She is currently the Executive of the British Accounting and Finance Association and the Chair of Corporate Finance and Asset Pricing SIG and the Council member of the British Academy of Management, and a consultant for the UK government's Co-Op Bank project. She served as an Expert for the China-Europe Public Administration Project II (CEPA II). She has important editorial responsibilities, including Editor of International Journal of Finance and Economics; and Associate Editor of the British Journal of Management, International Review of Financial Analysis, and British Accounting Review, and is an Editorial Board Member of several other journals. She is also the Guest Editor of fifteen international peer-reviewed journals.