报告题目：Synthetic Control Methods for Policy Analysis: Evaluating the Effect of the European Emission Trading System on Aviation Supply

报告所属学科：管理科学与工程

报告人：蒋昌敏（对外经济贸易大学）

报告时间：2022年4月12日 10：00

报告地点：线上

报告摘要：In this paper, we provide a novel application of synthetic control methods by offering two major tweaks to the existing methodological framework. We provide the first complete ex-post evaluation of the causal impact of carbon pricing on aviation supply, expressed in terms of airline output (i.e., number of seats supplied at the airline-route level). We exploit the policy change in the European Union Emission Trading System (EU-ETS), the first large greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme in the world. We distinguish between low-cost, regional and full service airlines, short and medium/long-haul routes, routes towards (or from) hub airports versus non hub airports, monopolistic versus non-monopolistic routes. The analysis shows that the EU-ETS does not have a substantial impact on the average aircraft size, while it has caused a reduction of total airline seat capacity and frequency, with the percentage of airline seat capacity reduction reaching above 20% at its peak. The overall effect of the policy has a remarkable impact on low-cost and regional airlines, on short- haul routes, spoke-spoke markets and monopolistic routes. Our results are the first empirical confirmation to the theoretical prediction in the aviation literature that emission charges will reduce flight frequency and increase load factors while having no effect on aircraft size.

报告人简介：

蒋昌敏，对外经济贸易大学教授，博士生导师，中国交通运输经济研究中心主任，国家级人才项目入选者，曾在加拿大U15联盟的曼尼托巴大学获得终身副教授职称。主要研究领域为交通运输经济与政策。至今已经正式发表2本著作和43篇被SCI/SSCI收录的高质量期刊论文，包括11篇交通运输领域国际顶级期刊Transportation Research Part B。担任交通运输领域国际知名期刊Transportation Research Part A, Transportation Research Part D以及Transport Policy等客座编辑及/或编委。主持加拿大“社会科学与人文研究委员会基金(SSHRC)”三项，主持“国家自然科学青年基金”一项，参与“国家社科重大项目”等基金项目多项。研究成果被广泛引用及认可，共被国内外学者Google Scholar引用超过1000次，曾被SSCI期刊Transport Policy及Journal of Air Transport Management的论文经过严格学术方法论证后获评“高铁相关研究全球成果最丰盛的十位学者”及“机场容量管理相关研究全球最巨影响力的十五篇学术论文”等荣誉。获得大量学术研究奖励，包括加拿大曼尼托巴省最高研究奖Falconer Emerging Researcher Rh Award for Outstanding Contributions to Scholarship and Research，以及International Transportation Economics Association （ITEA） Annual Conference， Air Transport Research Society （ATRS）World Conference，International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME) Annual Conference等高级别国际学术大会的最佳论文奖。