报告题目：Robust Optimization for Sequential Investment Problems: An Application to Climate Adaptation in the Mississippi River Basin
Effectively adapting to a changing climate involves making appropriate investment decisions based on long-term climate forecasts. This paper develops methods and performs a case study assessing how an investor would approach a long sequence of land investment decisions in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) using popular climate models. Each of the 32 climate models is parameterized using an estimate of human greenhouse gas emissions, known as representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), to generate a single climate forecast. Using a single climate forecast we generate a range of farmland values for the entire MRB. With the ranges we use a robust optimization model to determine the optimal investment policies given a desired level of conservatism, the extent to which farmland assets are constrained to adopt worst-case values. We show that the optimization model can be linearized and scales to large time frames, on the order of 50 plus years, and sets of assets. The case-study of investment in the MRB covers the years 2023-2090 and uses trajectories of land-values determined for each climate scenario using a regression model. We gather robust investment decisions from 32 individual climate models and the two RCPs. As the conservatism level increases, the range of latitudes over which investment takes place decreases and there are substantial differences in the regions where investment is optimal. Though all climate forecasts agree that on average the world is warming, our investment decisions show that the areas that benefit from the warming differ across models and RCP realizations. For the same RCP, across the 32 climate models we notice there may be investing in specific regions only, across regions, or even no investment at all. In general, our empirical analysis shows that there is disagreement between popular climate forecasts which influence land investment and may affect the most profitable land investments.
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